Tesla Model 3 Outline

The Tesla Model 3 Survey

Tesla’s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest

The Tesla Model 3 Survey

Tesla’s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest

We asked 5,000 owners about what it’s like to live with Elon Musk’s electric car. Here’s what we found.

We asked 5,000 owners about what it’s like to live with Elon Musk’s electric car. Here’s what we found.

When Dana Woodruff traded in her BMW X5 last year for Tesla Inc.’s new Model 3 electric car, her biggest concern was the availability of public chargers. She puts a lot of miles on the odometer as a real-estate agent in Houston, and in the springtime enjoys long drives through Texas Hill Country to view the bluebonnet wildflowers that blanket the plains and valleys. Would an electric vehicle cramp her style?

But Woodruff, 46, considers herself a car gal, and when the Model 3 arrived, she had to have one. After driving “Lucy”—that’s what she’s named her car—for the last 18 months, Woodruff’s range anxiety is gone. Now, she says, she’s hooked on the Autopilot driver-assistance features and Tesla’s frequent software upgrades that keep the car feeling brand new. “The only thing I regret,” Woodruff says, “is that I didn’t buy a Tesla three years ago.”

Two years after the Model 3’s rocky debut, drivers like Woodruff have startled automakers with a sudden rush toward electric vehicles. In the U.S., Tesla’s sedan has taken over the luxury class, outselling the category-defining BMW 3 Series and Mercedes Benz C-Class combined. And it’s doing so at a higher price: The average Model 3 goes for around $50,000, which is more than any of the top 10 vehicles that buyers traded in from other brands, according to responses to Bloomberg’s Model 3 owners survey. No other sedan in America is generating more revenue.

We asked 5,000 Model 3 owners about their previous cars and whether they’ll ever go back to them. Some of the most common trade-ins, somewhat surprisingly, were economy cars: Honda’s Accord and Civic, the Toyota Camry, and the Mazda 3. But as a percentage of a brand’s total sales, no one has been hurt more by Tesla’s success than BMW, the responses show.

Do you own a Model 3? Take the survey

When Dana Woodruff traded in her BMW X5 last year for Tesla Inc.’s new Model 3 electric car, her biggest concern was the availability of public chargers. She puts a lot of miles on the odometer as a real-estate agent in Houston, and in the springtime enjoys long drives through Texas Hill Country to view the bluebonnet wildflowers that blanket the plains and valleys. Would an electric vehicle cramp her style?

But Woodruff, 46, considers herself a car gal, and when the Model 3 arrived, she had to have one. After driving “Lucy”—that’s what she’s named her car—for the last 18 months, Woodruff’s range anxiety is gone. Now, she says, she’s hooked on the Autopilot driver-assistance features and Tesla’s frequent software upgrades that keep the car feeling brand new. “The only thing I regret,” Woodruff says, “is that I didn’t buy a Tesla three years ago.”

Two years after the Model 3’s rocky debut, drivers like Woodruff have startled automakers with a sudden rush toward electric vehicles. In the U.S., Tesla’s sedan has taken over the luxury class, outselling the category-defining BMW 3 Series and Mercedes Benz C-Class combined. And it’s doing so at a higher price: The average Model 3 goes for around $50,000, which is more than any of the top 10 vehicles that buyers traded in from other brands, according to responses to Bloomberg’s Model 3 owners survey. No other sedan in America is generating more revenue.

We asked 5,000 Model 3 owners about their previous cars and whether they’ll ever go back to them. Some of the most common trade-ins, somewhat surprisingly, were economy cars: Honda’s Accord and Civic, the Toyota Camry, and the Mazda 3. But as a percentage of a brand’s total sales, no one has been hurt more by Tesla’s success than BMW, the responses show.

Do you own a Model 3? Take the survey

As the Model 3 enters its third year—soon to be followed by the Model Y compact SUV—Tesla must prove that its wide appeal so far isn’t just a temporary rush of early adopters. Will most brand loyalists and economy-car buyers stick to their old habits? Or is Tesla repeating what Apple Inc. did with the phone: convincing consumers to fundamentally reassess how they value an established product?

Top 10 Cars Given Up for a Tesla Model 3

Buyers trade up, paying an average $50,528 for the Model 3 (U.S. Only)
  • Electric or Hybrid
  • Luxury
  • Economy
Rank# Type  Model Company Average Selling Price* Count
1
electric
Toyota Prius
Toyota
27,080
247
2
luxury
BMW 3 Series
BMW
46,477
157
3
none
Honda Accord
Honda
25,428
135
4
none
Honda Civic
Honda
21,448
121
5
electric
Nissan Leaf
Nissan
34,562
112
6
electric
Chevrolet Volt
GM
34,251
94
7
none
Toyota Camry
Toyota
26,160
75
8
electric
Tesla Model S
Tesla
95,000
70
9
none
Mazda 3
Mazda
24,847
66
9
luxury
Audi A4
Volkswagen
42,530
66
*Edmunds’s “True Market Value” reflects the average sales price including options and discounts from manufacturers and dealers. Tesla’s average Model 3 price is estimated by Bloomberg Intelligence.

I’m not rich, I’m an ordinary man with an ordinary job. I am exactly the buyer Elon Musk hoped to attract.

Stretching From Economy to Luxury

Price range of vehicles traded for Tesla’s Model 3 (U.S. only)
Source: Edmunds’s “True Market Value,” Bloomberg Intelligence.

Car customers are fairly predictable: They stick with vehicles that are similar to the ones they drove before. Brand loyalties are even passed down across generations. Tesla, so far, has broken these loyalties with the allure of new technology, high performance, and environmental sustainability.

The Silicon Valley automaker is on pace by early next year to become the first company in the world to sell one million electric vehicles. To maintain its lead, it must continue to draw customers away from gasoline cars—not just from the relatively small field of competing electric and hybrid vehicles. The chart below shows where Tesla’s customers have come from.

Tesla Takes a Bite From Everyone

Previous vehicles owned (U.S. only)
  • Electric or Hybrid
  • Luxury
  • Economy

I’ve owned three BMW 3 Series and was a diehard BMW fan. The Tesla blows those cars away.

While Tesla took the largest number of customers from Toyota, it affects the Japanese automaker very little. That’s because Toyota’s market share in the U.S. is enormous—more than 7 times greater than that of BMW or Audi.

The following chart orders the survey’s trade-in results in a different way: as a proportion of a brand’s U.S. sales. It shows BMW to be the automaker with the most to lose—almost five times more vulnerable than Mercedes-Benz. One explanation is that the two brands, while both competing in the same price segments, target different definitions of “luxury.” Mercedes is built for comfort and class, while BMW is defined by its driving performance. Comfort and class are hard to measure; for performance, you take the car to the track.

The editors at Motor Trend magazine tested the Model 3 against the BMW 3 Series and found that the “Model 3 wins this competition because it has thoroughly rewritten the rules of what a compact sports sedan can be.” BBC’s Top Gear ran the Model 3 against BMW’s more expensive M3 at Thunderhill Raceway Park in California, where the Tesla won by 2 seconds. The magazine cover screamed, “Electric Beats Petrol! Tesla Model 3 Outguns BMW M3.”

Model 3 Goes After the Ultimate Driving Machine

Measuring luxury cars traded in for a Model 3 against each brand’s U.S. market share, BMW proves most vulnerable
Rank Brand Company Units sold (2018) Count Vulnerability Index
1
BMW
BMW
311,014
287
100.0
2
Mini
BMW
43,684
35
86.8
3
Audi
Volkswagen
223,323
120
58.2
4
Acura
Honda
158,934
76
51.8
5
Infiniti
Nissan
149,280
67
48.6
6
Porsche
Volkswagen
57,202
23
43.6
7
Lexus
Toyota
298,310
87
31.6
8
Mercedes-Benz
Mercedes-Benz
354,144
73
22.3
Vulnerability Index is the ratio of branded cars traded for a Model 3 to total brand sales, normalized on a 100-point scale.
Source: Sales data from Motor Intelligence

Anytime somebody gets behind the wheel, it’s very well received. We have one friend that actually bought one within the week after she drove ours.

Tesla doesn’t spend money on advertisements: No Facebook or Twitter ads, no lavish magazine spreads, no paid endorsements by actor Matthew McConaughey, no Super Bowl ads.

Instead, Tesla relies on splashy product events, the Twitter stream of Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, and word of mouth. In the Bloomberg survey, almost 99% of Model 3 owners said they would recommend one to their friends or family—and many of them already have. In follow-up calls with a dozen survey respondents, every owner we talked to described taking friends or family members on test drives.

Model 3 Owners Are Tesla’s Biggest Sales Force

  • Strongly Disagree
  • Disagree
  • Neutral
  • Agree
  • Strongly Agree
 
Average score
I’d recommend a Model 3 to friends or family
  • 13
  • 13
  • 29
  • 286
  • 4250
4.91
I would buy a Model 3 again
  • 14
  • 18
  • 53
  • 362
  • 4141
4.87
The Model 3 has exceeded my expectations
  • 12
  • 15
  • 83
  • 733
  • 3748
4.78
I will never buy another gasoline-powered car
  • 16
  • 77
  • 218
  • 612
  • 3655
4.71
Model 3 is more reliable than my previous cars
  • 23
  • 89
  • 894
  • 962
  • 2481
4.30

While I admire Elon Musk, I understand that a lot at Tesla hinges on him personally, which represents a substantial existential risk to their business.

Owner sentiment towards Tesla and its CEO were both very high. Many said Tesla’s mission to accelerate the adoption of electric cars creates an unusual sense of owner camaraderie. About 55% of respondents said their opinion of Musk influenced their decision to purchase the car. While that finding may seem lower than most scores in our survey, it’s worth considering how unusual it is for the CEO of a company to personally influence a buyer’s decisions.

“It’s rare to see the head of a company put so much of themselves into their company,” said Deanna Sherry, a 41-year-old library assistant in Clarksville, Tennessee, in a follow-up telephone interview. “I have no clue what the head of Ford looks like. And I only know Nissan because he went to jail.”

While most comments about Musk were positive, some customers worried about his combative approach on Twitter and his confrontations with U.S. safety regulators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Tesla Factor

A sense of mission unifies owners
  • Strongly Disagree
  • Disagree
  • Neutral
  • Agree
  • Strongly Agree
 
Average score
My opinion of Tesla is positive
  • 14
  • 16
  • 65
  • 582
  • 3913
4.82
My opinion of the company influenced my purchase
  • 35
  • 104
  • 448
  • 1161
  • 2827
4.45
I feel a sense of community with other Model 3 owners
  • 17
  • 64
  • 472
  • 1322
  • 2697
4.45
My opinion of Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk is positive
  • 43
  • 100
  • 426
  • 1430
  • 2590
4.40
My opinion of Elon Musk influenced my purchase
  • 256
  • 609
  • 1177
  • 1122
  • 1406
3.62

Still on the expensive side - would love to see a sub $30k version before incentives.

Owners were most split over the impact of government subsidies. In Norway, which heavily taxes gasoline-fueled cars and subsidizes electric vehicles, more than 88% of respondents said subsidies swayed their purchase. In Switzerland, the government recently approved an ambitious target to increase electric-vehicle adoption but has so far been unable to agree on the incentives, such as purchase subsidies, to make it happen.

The U.S. federal tax break for electric cars is designed to phase out after a company’s sales reach 200,000 units. Beginning in January 2020, Tesla will be the only automaker whose customers don’t receive a U.S. incentive.

The Impact of Government Incentives

Some policies work, some don’t
  • Strongly Disagree
  • Disagree
  • Neutral
  • Agree
  • Strongly Agree
 
Average score
Government incentives swayed my purchase
  • 428
  • 531
  • 987
  • 1603
  • 1035
3.50
Location
Norway
  • 1
  • 1
  • 4
  • 11
  • 36
4.51
France
  • 2
  • 3
  • 6
  • 32
  • 13
3.91
United States
  • 199
  • 398
  • 810
  • 1392
  • 845
3.63
Canada
  • 54
  • 39
  • 58
  • 95
  • 106
3.45
Netherlands
  • 10
  • 10
  • 13
  • 17
  • 13
3.21
Germany
  • 32
  • 34
  • 32
  • 13
  • 4
2.33
Switzerland
  • 35
  • 8
  • 8
  • 1
  • 2
1.65

Models are fluid and fragmented as they continuously refine them. The ups and downs irritate current owners when they wonder if they bought at the right or wrong time.

A frequent source of complaint for Model 3 owners is the slew of changes Tesla has made to Model 3 options and pricing over the last year. The chart below shows how the offerings have evolved over time. After a particularly messy stretch of tinkering between November 2018 and May 2019, the lineup appears to have stabilized with a relatively even split between Tesla’s three main models.

Model 3 Lineup Emerges After a Year of Tinkering

It has forever changed my expectations for what a car should be.

A Car for Millenials and Gen Xers

Model 3 owners by age

Bloomberg’s survey respondents were, as a whole, the epitome of early tech adopters. Almost 95% were men, and most were ages 30 to 50 with above-average incomes. The biggest concentration was from California, and employment was dominated by the tech sector. This demographic homogeneity may also partly reflect Bloomberg’s readership and the type of person who is willing to spend 15 minutes on a survey about cars.

Tesla is just beginning to move beyond the early adopter-stage and will need to expand across new demographics if it wants to keep growing. Continued success now depends on widespread adoption of electric vehicles in areas that are only beginning to see them for the first time. For the final section of Bloomberg survey results, we reached out to some respondents who don’t necessarily fit the typical profile of a Tesla driver to hear what they think about the future. Below is a selection of their comments, lightly edited for clarity.

Wyatt Haukap, 45
Plumber from Carroll, Iowa
Previous car was a Toyota Sienna

“Carroll is a small town, and we own a small business. I’m the first to own a Model 3, so I’m working at snuffing the misconceptions. The average person thinks that you’re rich because you have one, which is a total misnomer. This was a $54,000 car. I’ve probably averaged three cents a mile to operate the thing. It’s also way more convenient. It only takes a couple days to get in the habit of plugging it in.

Iowa prevents Tesla from operating here. It’s an ethanol, you know, corn state and the dealership lobby has a hold here. So I had to pick up my car in Minnesota. They recently opened a service center somewhere over by Omaha, a couple hours west of us. Knock on wood, I haven’t had any issues to deal with. I had Mobile Service come from Ames to change a door handle that was kind of stuck open.

I have zero regrets. It’s been fantastic—friggin love it.”

Carmen Czachor, 55
Veterinarian from Port Angeles, Washington
Previous car was a Honda Civic

“For the first nine months, I didn’t have charging at home, so I would charge it when I was at work—and I own my own practice so I could do that. There are about 10 chargers around here, a few at bed and breakfasts.

There was already a red Tesla in town when I got mine. I took a lot of people on pilot rides just to try it out. Now that there’s quite a few, it seems to be like a brotherhood of Tesla owners. We all kind of wave at each other.

I don’t like gassing cars up. I love the idea of not having to change the oil, of not having a muffler falling off, or any of that. I’m usually a person that has a car that goes from here to there, and I drive it until it dies. So it’s a little off track for me to buy a brand new car, let alone a brand new not-super-cheap car. I’m still making payments, but I don’t regret it.”

Jeremy Greenlee, 36
Anti-human trafficking worker from Goshen, Indiana
Previous car was a Toyota Corolla

“I travel all across the state doing trainings and consulting on trafficking cases. I think I’ve put 45,000 miles on the Model 3 since I’ve owned it and saved $5,000 to $6,000 in gas expenses over the last year. It’s a bigger upfront cost, but if you’re doing less maintenance and you’re saving so much money on gas, it really is a very affordable vehicle.

I’ve traveled a lot on Navigate on Autopilot, and what hasn’t really been talked about is just how good it is getting with all of the nuances of driving. Little things like how much smoother the lane changes are. I feel like in many ways, it’s better right now than a human.

Even my friends from a very rural area that do a lot of farming work that aren’t taking into consideration climate change or anything like that, when they get behind the wheel of this vehicle it’s very appealing. I’ve talked to them about the upcoming Tesla pickup, and one of them in particular talks about how he wants it to look like a normal pickup. But I feel like Tesla is spot on with their designs on all their other vehicles, so I wouldn’t expect anything different from this one.”

Miguel Pereira, 36
Oil engineer from Kristiansund, Norway
Previous car was a BMW i3

“I’m not a Tesla fanboy but I’m a tech fanboy. I remember being a child and thinking, ‘When I grow up, I want to drive a future car. I don’t want to drive a car that looks and feels and sounds and smells like the same car my dad used to drive.’ So as soon as I got into an electric car, that was the paradigm shift.

Stepping into the electric world, I didn’t do it because of Tesla, I did it because of another brand: BMW. I’m very disappointed that BMW did not push the ‘I’ brands as hard as they should have. They seem to be doing it now but a bit too late. I still think BMW, quality-wise, is a better car than Tesla, it’s just that with Tesla you get way more car, way more technology, and way more features for the money.

Since the beginning of the year, the Model 3 is by far the most sold car in Norway. We have a government that really wants to support green initiatives, maybe to compensate for the oil industry that this country lives on that has a big footprint on Earth. I’m not going to say that I bought an electric car because I want to save the world. I know I have a lesser impact when I drive my Tesla, but I’m just passionate about technology. After you try one you can’t drive anything else.”

Deanna Sherry, 41
Library Assistant from Clarksville, TN
Previous car was a Dodge Challenger

“The Dodge Challenger, my husband bought, and before that I was driving his giant pickup truck, so I’m gradually stepping down better. I think traditionally more husbands are involved in buying cars, but I think that’s slowly changing. I’ve been watching Tesla since the beginning, and I was like, ‘I’m going to get a Tesla.’

The majority of people who ask me about it are women, and I think women like them just as much. I’m African American, and it might just be because they feel comfortable approaching me, but more and more African Americans approach me about my car, like ‘Ahh, love your car! Is that a Tesla? Ahh I love it.’

I also like going fast. After driving it a few days, the acceleration—there’s nothing better than leaving people at a stoplight. I think maybe that’s it: Library workers are passive aggressive and they like to just floor it.”

Dana Woodruff, 46
Realtor from Houston, TX
Previous car was a BMW X5

“I’ve been in car clubs and I’ve had a lot of different classic cars and daily drivers for 20 years. And it’s rare to have women really interested in the car. That is one really unusual thing about Tesla. There are about 2,500 ladies in the ‘Tesla Divas’ Facebook group. We meet up for mimosas and breakfast occasionally.

You know, I’m trading in a car every three years. I’ve seen a lot of cars, and there is something about this brand that is inspiring a community. The women’s group has a tendency to answer the questions a little more kindly than some of the other groups that surround the Tesla brand. Some of these ladies are pretty rabid—I’ve gotta think Musk’s security team has got to be concerned.

One of the things I absolutely adore about the Model 3 is that I feel like I get a new car about every 12 weeks. I have so many features now that I didn’t have when I bought the car a year ago. Normally, at about a year, year-and-a-half of ownership I’m already scouting out the freeways for what looks good, and I find that I don’t do that with the Model 3.”

Aimee Staley, 49
Neuropsychologist from Columbus, GA
Previous car was a Subaru Outback

“There are tons of Teslas in Atlanta, but like a lot of things in Georgia, once you leave Atlanta, everything drops off precipitously. My only issue here and as I travel throughout the South is there needs to be more Superchargers. Because they are fewer and far between.

People stare at the Model 3. I get a lot of questions about it. Kids get really excited about it, they think it’s like this unicorn that they just haven’t seen before. But a lot of people around here don’t even know that Tesla is electric—they’ve just heard that it’s fast. My husband loves to take people out on rides. One of our friends, we convinced him and he got one 3 or 4 months ago.

There seems to be a lot of misinformation about Tesla, and a real campaign in some ways to put the car down and put the company down. Elon is a character, and a lot of people don’t like him, but people love this car, and I think that’s something that needs to be more widely dispersed.”

Frank McWilliams, 37
Air Traffic Controller from Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Previous car was a Chevrolet Volt

“When I first got it, I’d get the thumbs up on the road. I had one guy on a motorcycle chase me down to tell me he liked it. I was doing four or five test drives at work a day.

I’ve driven a lot of very fast cars and a lot of very high performing cars, but the Model 3 Performance is the most fun I’ve ever had in a factory automobile. It’s like a giant go-kart with air conditioning, it’s amazing. It’s not the fastest, it’s not the very best around a corner, it’s just fun. It wants to be driven hard.

I had three different 4.10 Camaro Z28s that I drag raced often in the early 2000s, a 2016 GTO that was the last GTO sold east of the Mississippi with a six speed, a police package Caprice, and a 2008 Corvette Z06 that made 600 horsepower at the wheels and did 10.2 in a quarter mile. I’m a car guy. I will almost certainly have another internal combustion car. But I don’t know that I’ll ever not have an electric car as well.