EV Sales: China

Plugins are a hot item in China, having scored over 175,000 units last month, jumping 173% regarding the same month last year, with BEVs in particular growing an amazing 204% rate.

April was the second month in a row that the plugin share reached the two-digits mark, by hitting 10% (8.2% BEV), keeping the 2021 share at 10% (8.1% BEV), and considering that Q1 is usually China's weakest quarter, we can now safely assume that the local plugin market share will end North of the two-digits mark this year, and the total tally of the year will exceed 2 million deliveries!

After Europe, #EVDisruption is now reaching China...

Looking at April's Best Sellers, the biggest news is the 4th spot of the Li Xiang One, with the full size SUV ending just 207 units the #3 BYD Han EV, something that would be a first for the startup maker.

Here’s April Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

With 29,251 units last month, the tiny four seater continues on a roll, allowing it to keep the 3rd spot in the overall market, if the little Wuling continues to go at this pace, a half a million score by the end of the year seems not only feasible, but likely. The Wuling EV is becoming a disruptive force in urban mobility, a true EV for the masses, with the added bonus that the people buying it (mostly females, mostly under 35 year olds) are usually a hard to capture audience. This EV is becoming a game changer, but like in every success story, one wonders what will happen when others start to play in this field...

#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility had just 6,264 units last month, but fear not, considering that part of the MiC Model 3 production is now being exported to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, we should start to see it behave in China like it does elsewhere, meaning poor starts of the quarter, so-so mid quarter months and then an end-of-quarter peak, replicating the behavior of the US-made Model 3. Something we will no doubt have the opportunity to check in the next couple of quarters...

#3 – BYD Han EV

The successful career of BYD’s luxury sedan in China has seem to hit cruise speed, by delivering 5,746 units in April, but it was still enough to earn it its first podium presence since last January. The current poster-boy for BYD is expected to continue going at 5-7,000 units/month in the foreseeable future, looking to keep the full size category leadership from the wheels of the...

#4 – Li Xiang One

...Big SUV from Li Xiang. A sort of Dark Horse among the whole Chinese EV Startup buzz, the little talked about EREV has already delivered over 55,000 units in just 17 months, an amazing performance, especially when we consider that this is a huge 5-meter, 7-seater, full-size SUV. Using an original strategy when it comes to powertrain, being one of the few Extended Range Electric Vehicles on the market, it adds to the 41 kWh battery with fast-charging capabilities, a 1.2 liter gasoline engine that works as a range enxtender. With production (and demand?) now in cruise speed, one wonders when will this EV startup launch its 2nd ~~album~~ model, after all, their counterparts in the movement (NIO, Xpeng, etc) are already on their 2nd, or even 3rd, new model...

#5 – Tesla Model Y

Tesla's new baby had only 5,407 units last month, and while at first sight it looks like a disappointing result, this is mostly explained by the 2 week shut down in April, expect it to recover soon and maybe resume the records streak by June. Tesla’s midsize crossover future cruise speed in China is a question mark, while traditionally SUVs/Crossovers haven't sold as much as their sedan counterparts, the truth is that the market is leaning towards higher riding bodies, so the Model Y could surf the wave and outsell the Model 3 by some margin.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in April, a mention to the rise and rise of the #10 Hozon Neta V, a small crossover from Hozon that has delivered 3,846 units last month, the 2nd record performance in a row for the EV startup model, so we might be witnessing the build up of another star in the Chinese EV startup sky.

Another model with surging sales is the new BYD Qin Plus PHEV, 12th last month with a record 3,603 units, its third record score in a row, so it means that the new midsize BYD is still in production ramp up, with the Shenzhen maker hoping to replicate the Han success in the category below.

The #18 SAIC Roewe RX5 PHEV had 2,499 units last month, the SUV's best score in 34 months, while the #15 BYD e2 hatchback hit a record score of 2,903 units.

Local startups continue to shine, besides the aforementioned Hozon Neta V, in total we had 7 representatives from 6 different startups in the table, with the highest placed being the #4 Li Xiang One.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the landing of the GAC Aion Y, with a great 2,000 units score, so the compact MPV (Yeay! MPVs rule!), seems to have started off its career on the right foot, after one failure (Aion LX) and one meh! launch (Aion V), this is an important model for GAC, that has been solely living off the success of the Aion S for years and it desperatly needs more successful metal for the company to grow and avoid the one trick pony moniker.

On the VW Group galaxy, the VW ID.4, continues to (slowly) ramp up production, with the SUV having 1,644 units last month (922 from the ID.4X and 722 from the ID.4 Crozz variants), while their Chinese arm SOL (as in, rebadged JAC's) saw the small E10X hit a record score of 2,249 units.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the top positions all remained the same, with the Wuling Mini EV as the undisputed leader, with the runner-up Tesla Model 3 also comfortable, so unless something unexpected occurs, the top two positions are already taken for

Below it, the Tesla Model Y got a little bit closer from the #4 Great Wall Ora Black Cat, that had an off month in April, with Tesla's SUV set to surpass the small Cat in the next couple of months.

The first position change happened in #10, with SAIC's small Clever EV jumping three spots into the top half of the table, while in #12 we have the Hozon Neta V, that also jumped 3 positions, and we should see it climb even higher, given the current records streak that the small crossover is experiencing.

The BYD Han PHEV is also experiencing a success of its own, having climbed to #16 last month, while another EV startup model has joined the Top 20, with the small Leap Motor T03 jumping to #19, being the 7th EV startup model in this Top 20.

Just outside the Top 20, we have two models on the rise, with the #21 Xpeng G3 just 70 units behind the #20 Ora White Cat, so the crossover might already join the table next month, while the BYD Qin Plus PHEV is some 800 units below the Top 20, and given its current production ramp up process, it wouldn't be that surprising if it joined the table already in May.

Looking at the makers ranking, the SGMW joint-venture (20%, down 1%) is in the leadership, while below it, Tesla (12%, down 2%) is just 2,000 units ahead of BYD (12%, up 1%), but expect the US maker to gain significant ground again, in June.

Below the podium, SAIC (7%) is 4th, followed by the #5 Great Wall (6%) and the #6 NIO (4%, down 1%).

Interestingly, the all-mighty Volkswagen Group, owner of 16% of the overall Chinese passenger car market, currently has only 5% of the plugin market, a number that pales next to the 27% share of the SAIC Group, or even the 12% that both BYD and Tesla have, so a lot needs to be done, if they still want to keep their grip on the market in the long term.

Thursday, April 22, 2021

China March 2021

11% share!

Plugins are a hot item in China, having scored a near-record 211,000 units last month, jumping 244% regarding the same month last year, making it the second best month ever, only behind last December.

Last month plugin share reached the two-digits mark for the first time ever, by hitting 11% (9.2% BEV), pulling the 2021 share to 10% (8% BEV), and considering January and February are China's weakest months, we can now safely assume that the local plugin market share will end North of the two-digits mark this year, and the total tally of the year will exceed 2 million deliveries!

After Europe, #EVDisruption is now reaching China...

Looking at March Best Sellers were exacly the same as February, and in the same order, with the Wuling Mini EV leading the pack, followed by both Teslas in the remaining podium positions.

Here’s March Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

After a small break in February, the Wuling EV is back at full speed, scoring a record 39,745 units last month, resuming its long streak of records, and allowing it to reach the 3rd spot in the overall market, with the little Wuling selling some 270,000 units in 270 days, meaning that if the tiny four-seater continues to grow at this pace, a half a million score by the end of the year seems not only feasible, but likely. The Wuling EV is becoming a disruptive force in urban mobility, a true EV for the masses, and unlike what many might think, its success isn't just happening in the poorer regions of China, as the tiny EV is also selling well in places like Tianjin (3rd Best Selling EV), Guangdong (#2), or Fujian (#1), and like a certain 1959 model bearing the same name, or the original bug-named VW, the Wuling Mini EV is becoming a sort of icon for classless transportation, as the people buying it (mostly females, mostly under 35 year olds) are usually a hard to capture audience. This EV has a lot to become a game changer, and not only in China...

#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 25,327 units last month, allowing it to reach the 11th spot in the overall market, a rather surprising result in retrospective of past performances, and considering that MiC Model 3 are now being exported to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, we might start to see end-of-quarter peak deliveries in China, replicating the behavior of the US-made Model 3. Something we will no doubt have the opportunity to check in the next couple of quarters...

#3 – Tesla Model Y

Tesla's new baby hit 10,151 units last month, and while it’s not (yet) a Model 3-beating score, it means that the production ramp-up is going smoothly and should hit its peak during the second quarter of the year. Tesla’s midsize crossover future cruise speed in China is a question mark, while traditionally SUVs/Crossovers haven't sold as much as their sedan counterparts, the truth is that the market is leaning towards higher riding bodies, so the Model Y could surf the wave and outsell the Model 3 by some margin.

#4 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Ora's ever-growing Cat Pack (the VW-Beetle inspired Punk Cat has just been presented at the Shanghai Auto Show), is becoming quite popular, and none of them has been as popular as the tiny Black Cat, that delivered 8,527 units in March, allowing the Great Wall model to continue in the forefront of the resurgence of City EVs and might reach new heights soon, say maybe...10,000 units-plus in April?.

#5 – BYD Han EV

The successful career of BYD’s luxury sedan in China has been resumed in March, by delivering 7,956 units, enough to beat the 2^nd best selling full-size model (Li Xiang One) by a sizeable margin, as the big SUV ended some 3,000 units behind. The current poster-boy for BYD is expected to continuing thriving in the foreseeable future, keeping the category leadership with an iron fist.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in March, a mention to the rise and rise of the small Changan Benni EV, with 4,076 units, its 3rd record performance in a row, allowing the Toyota Yaris-like hatchback to reach the 9th position last month, and raising the question if we aren't witnessing the rise of a new star in the competitive Chinese EV market...Discuss.

Another model with surging sales is the new BMW iX3, 10th last month with a record 3,519 units, with the midsize SUV now being BMW's main bet in China, and the only other foreign model on the table, besides the Tesla siblings.

Local startups continue to shine, and the highlight of the month belonged to Hozon's small Neta V, that scored a record 3,206 units, while in total we had 7 representatives from 6 different startups in the table, with the highest placed being the #7 Li Xiang One (4,900 units), this is creating an interesting phenomenon, while established Chinese makers (FAW, Dongfeng, etc) are apparently oblivious to the current NEV wave, it's smaller makers, like BYD, and the local startups that are filling the empty space. The most bizarre example is Geely, owner of Volvo and Polestar, two brands that are heavy on plugins, and inclusively Geely itself is leading plugin markets in places like Russia and Belarus, and yet, in its home market, it has less than 1% share...

Speaking of BYD, after a quick transition into the new Blade Battery in its lineup, the new policy is now starting to bear its first fruits, with the new BYD D1 people carrier showing up in #16, thanks to 2,796 units, its fourth record result in a row, while the new Qin Plus PHEV had its first volume month, allowing it to show up in #18, with 2,509 units.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the ramp-up of ORA's White Cat (2,406 units) and Good Cat (2,116), while the VW Magotan PHEV (Euro-spec Passat, but made in China) hit a record 2,352 units, and still on the Volkswagen stable, a mention to the ramp-up of the ID.4, that reached 990 units last month.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the Wuling Mini EV is the undisputed leader, and the same can be said about the runner-up Tesla Model 3, so unless something unexpected occurs, the top two positions are already taken for

Below it, the Climber of the Month was once again the Tesla Model Y, that jumped four positions, into #5, and this was the only change in the Top 10.

There wasn't also much to talk about on the second half of the table, the NIO ES6 climbed to #11, while the BMW iX3 joined the table, in #16, interestingly, all three climbers in this Top 20 were high end midsize SUVs...A coincidence?

Just outside the Top 20, we have two models on the rise, with the #21 BYD D1 just 767 units behind the #20 Ora Good Cat, so the MPV might already join the table in April, while the small Leap Motor T03 could also reach the Top 20 soon, with the startup model only 1,074 units below the table.

Looking at the makers ranking, the SGMW joint-venture (21%, down 1%) is in the leadership, while below it, Tesla (14%, up 2%) is now firmly in the 2nd spot, ahead of BYD (11%).

Below the podium, SAIC (7%, down 1%) is 4th, followed by the #5 Great Wall (6%) and the #6 NIO (5%)

Thursday, March 18, 2021

China February 2021

Tesla launches made-in-China Model Y configurator, starts taking orders - Electrek

Tesla Model Y ramps up

Plugins had another great month in China last month, with 104,000 units, a six-fold jump regarding the same month last year, although February 2020 had been heavily disrupted by the Covid pandemic, but if we were to compare with February 2019, last month would also mean a major jump in sales, as 2 years ago, we were celebrating 41,000 registrations in February...How times have changed, eh?

Last month plugin share reached 9% (7.5% BEV), pulling the 2021 share to 8.7% (7.3% BEV), and considering January and February are China's weakest months, we can now safely assume that the local plugin market will cross North of the two-digits mark this year, maybe even during the first half of the year!

Looking at February Best Sellers, we have 2 midsize models (the two Teslas), 2 City EVs (Wuling Mini EV and Ora's Black Cat), and one big sedan (BYD Han EV), with the highlight being the Tesla Model Y winning its first (of many) podium spots.

Here’s February Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

A big name for such a small car, the Wuling EV scored 20,167 units last month, effectively ending a 7 months records streak, but it was still a great result, as this score was still more than the 2 other nameplates in podium had combined, meaning that the tiny four-seater is to continue growing during the next few months, possibly reaching some 350k-450k units score by the end of the year. The reason for this success? Well, it is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,400!!!), and yet, it’s not all that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people (or 3 people and a bit of cargo, or 2 with a fair amount of cargo – 741 liters), in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm / 114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV, sure, range is not brilliant (smaller battery version has 9.2 kWh battery, top spec version has a 13.8 kWh battery), just like the motor (27hp), but it has only 665 kg curb weight to carry around and is highway capable, so in order to have the 4,200 USD price, without subsidies, one can’t expect miracles... At this price level, the Wuling EV is in position to be a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers. This EV could be a game changer, and not only in China...

#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit 13,688 units last month, and while it’s not as high as one could expect, Tesla’s midsizer continues firmly above the 10,000 mark and should continue scoring 12k-15k performances in the near future. Unless, of course, its sibling Tesla Model Y starts to steal a significant number of sales from it...Interestingly, February was the probably the first time that the Model 3 has beaten the category Best Sellers in the overall market, as the Californian outsold the Audi A4 (9,000 units), BMW 3-Series (10,000), and Mercedes C-Class (11,000), so one might say that the Tesla sports sedan is getting closer to its goal.

#3 – Tesla Model Y

Tesla's new baby hit 4,630 units last month, and while it’s not (yet) a Model 3-beating score, it means that the production ramp-up is going smoothly and should hit its peak during the second quarter of the year. Tesla’s midsize crossover future cruise speed in China is a question mark, while traditionally SUVs/Crossovers haven't sold as much as their sedan counterparts, the truth is that the market is leaning towards higher riding bodies, so the Model Y could surf the wave and outsell its Model 3 by quite some margin. Currently, the Premium midsize SUV Best Sellers in the overall market are the Audi Q5 (12,500 units), BMW X3 (10,900) and the Mercedes GLC (8,900), so we could expect the Californian jump to 10k-up performances soon, and maybe cruise at some 15,000 units/month speed this year.

#4 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Great Wall managers decided to grant its EV-only sub-brand Ora a Cat Pack, transforming its tiny R1 Smart-lookalike into the Black Cat, launching later the R2 model (think Scion XB/Toyota Urban Cruiser kind of vehicle) as the White Cat, and to lead the Pack, Great Wall has just launched the Good Cat, a chunky (and funky) compact hatchback (VW Golf sized) that kinda looks like a Porsche 356 in the front, a Toyota from the side, and the back...Well, it’s its own thing. And in good time they did it, because they had all 3 Cats in last month Top 20... But enough of the other Cats, we are here to talk about the Black Cat, that delivered 4,561 units in February, allowing the Great Wall model to continue in the forefront of the resurgence of City EVs.

#5 – BYD Han EV

The rise and rise of BYD’s luxury sedan in China has been paused in February, with the big BYD ending a 6 record results streak, by delivering just 4,100 units, but it still enough to beat the 2^nd best selling full-size model (Li Xiang One) by quite some margin, as the bif SUV had little more than half of its sales. The current poster-boy for BYD is expected to continuing thriving, in the foreseeable future, keeping the category leadership with an iron fist.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in February, a mention to the record score of the small Changan Benni EV, with 3,274 units, its second record performance in a row, allowing this Toyota Yaris-like hatchback to jump to 6th last month, and raising the question if we aren't witnessing the rise of a new star in the competitive Chinese EV market...Discuss.

Another model jumping positions is SAIC's Roewe ei6 PHEV sedan, that showed up in #13 last month, thanks to 1,639 units, its best score since June 2019.

But the flavour of the month are the models from local startups, and this time we had 6 representatives in the table, with the highest placed being the #6 Li Xiang One (2,300 units), while NIO placed all its 3 models in the Top 20(!), XPeng had its popular P7 sedan in #17, with 1,409 units, and Hozon saw its small crossover Neta V reach #11, with 2,002 units.

Others also had reasons to celebrate, like Great Wall placing all of its 3 Cats in the Top 20, or BMW, that besides the usual 530Le, #16 last month, saw its new iX3 EV sneak in the table, in #20.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the ramp-up of the BYD D1 EV, a compact MPV (hurray for MPVs!) aimed at ride-hailing services, namely DiDi, that has reached 1,166 units last month, so we should see it in the table soon.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, if the Wuling Mini EV is the undisputed leader, while below it, the Climber of the Month was the Tesla Model Y, that jumped from outside the Top 20, into #9, and still in the Top 10, Ora's Black Cat climbed to 4th, at the expense of the GAC Aion S, the Li Xiang One was also up one spot, to 6th, and the Changan Benni EV jumped 3 spots, to #8.

The Black Cat and Benni EV rises underline the fact that City EVs are returning to the spotlight, with the Wuling EV being its finest example.

But it weren’t only with the City EVs shining, as Great Wall's intriguing looking Ora Good Cat joined the table, in #18, a surprising result, as compact hatchbacks aren't a popular segment in China, and something of a good news for Volkswagen's ID.3 (possible) career in China, apparently you can break into the local Top 20 with a compact hatch...

Local startup models are as present as ever, and just outside the Top 20, we have two more of these, with the XPeng G3 in #21 and the Weltmeister EX5 in #22...Thus making 8 local startup models in the Top 22 positions!

Looking at the makers ranking, the SGMW joint-venture (22%, down 1%) is in the leadership, while below it, there was an important position change, with Tesla (12%, up 3%) jumping ahead of BYD (11%, down 1%), with the Californian maker now assuming the runner-up spot.

Below the podium, SAIC (8%, down 1%) is 4th, followed by the #5 Great Wall (6%) and the rising #6 NIO (5%, up 1%), that has surpassed GAC (4%) last month.

Interestingly, in the race for Best Selling Foreign Brand not named Tesla, the #12 BMW has surpassed Volkswagen, now relegated to #13, with the German maker, which is the largest brand in the overall Chinese automotive market, being currently behind not only BMW, but also below startups like XPeng (#9), or Li Xiang (#11)...Those ID models are badly needed, aren't they, VW?

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

China January 2021

The Rise and Rise of the Wuling Mini EV

After the December sales peak, one would expect a sales hangover in January, only...it didn't happened, as the market had some 173,000 passenger NEV units, an impressive 223% jump YoY, and the highest growth rate this market have seen in 3 years!

Of course, January 2020 was impacted by the Chinese New Year holidays and the Covid pandemic, but still, even comparing with the remaining months of 2020, it outsold every other month of last year, with the exception of November and December, usually the two strongest months in this market...

As a consequence of this, the PEV share started the year at a high 8.4% (7% BEV), already a step above of the 6.3% of 2020, so unless the local government decides to remove the subsidies to this booming market, we might see it reach two digit shares already this year! And with the much awaited Tesla Model Y and VW ID.4, right around the corner, i wouldn't even rule out record months in the first half of this year(!)....

In January, plug-in hybrids growth (+94% YoY) was outshined by pure electric models (+276%!), allowing BEVs to tighten their hold of the market, as they represented 83% of sales, up 3% share regarding 2020 and 12% regarding the same month last year.

Illustrating the current trends of the Chinese EV market, on last month Top 5 we have one full size sedan (BYD Han EV), two midsize sedans (Tesla Model 3 and GAC Aion S), one tiny four seater (Ora Black Cat) and the leader, the incredibly small 4 seater Wuling Mini EV.

Here’s January Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Wuling Mini EV

This model was something of a shot in a dark for the SGMW joint-venture, as until this model launch, city EVs depended heavily on accessing subsidies to be successful, but it has paid off, as the nameplate became an instant success, and while it was initially intended as a credit enhancer, allowing them to counter balance their ICE offerings, if sales continue rising like they have been so far, in January it hit 36,762 units, its 7th record in a row, the tiny vehicle might even reach the break even point by the end of this year and actually make a profit in future years! Turning cheap city EVs into a profitable business has been a ellusive target for everyone in the EV business, but it seems SGMW is the only one close to get it...

#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster-child for electric mobility delivered 13,843 units, and while this isn't the disruptive result that many would expect from Tesla's sports sedan, let’s remember that local production is now being exported to other markets (wether that was intended from the start because of cheaper production costs or it's a way to compensate for lower than expected demand in China is another discussion) and the midsizer now has internal competition, coming from the Model Y, but expect the Model 3 to continue cruising at around 15k-20k units per month.

#3 – BYD Han EV

The rise and rise of BYD’s luxury sedan in China is impressive in more than one way, first the steady increase in demand, with the big BYD scoring its 6th record result in a row, with 9,298 units, and second, the full-size sedan is running in the top positions with models that sit lower in the food chain, as the 2^nd best selling full-size model (Li Xiang One) had almost half of its sales. Winning its first podium position last month, the current poster-boy for BYD continues to thrive, and if we were to add the PHEV version to its tally, we would have over 12,000 units, which getting mighty close to the #2 Tesla Model 3...Now i ain't sayin' it's a Tesla killa, but no one's messing with this fella...

#4 – GAC Aion S

Things continue to go well for the Aion S, with the sleek sedan securing another Top 5 presence, thanks to 6,092 units, it's best result in over a year. But before the GAC fans out there (“Everybody from Guangzhou, put your hands up, put your hands up…”), say that the S sedan is just the start and the upcoming Y people mover will be another resounding success, let's remember that the other Aion launches, that followed the S landing, have either bombed (the LX midsize SUV is selling in two digits), or have had "meh!" results (the V compact crossover is selling a third of the S sedan).

#5 – Great Wall Ora Black Cat

The Chinese moniker from Great Wall had 6,090 units delivered last month, confirming its role of the bread and butter model for the brand, at least until the other cats (the White and the Good) do not end their production ramp up, which in the case of the White Cat, is already allowing the small people mover to join the table, in #17.

Resultado de imagem para lixiang automotive

Li Xiang One

Outside the Top 5, we have several models shining, like the good behavior of the local EV Startups, with 8(!) representatives in the Top 20, with the Li Xiang One full size SUV leading the pack in 7th, with 5,379 units, with the model being the SUV category leader and also the #1 in the PHEV race, while Xpeng placed its two models on the table, with the P7 sedan in #10, with a record 3,710 deliveries, and the G3 crossover in #16, and NIO did even better, by placing all of its 3 models in the table, with the EC6 crossover in #12 (with a record 2,845 units), the ES6 SUV in #14 and even the full fat ES8 barge joined the table in #20...Besides these, the small crossover Neta V from Hozon joins the Top 20, in #18 with 2,076 units, its 3rd record in a row, and the Weltmeister EX5 compact crossover was #19.

But this wasn't only about startups, others also had reasons to smile about, especially SAIC, because on top of strong perfomances across its long lineup, two have joined the table with record performances, the Roewe eRX5 PHEV compact SUV was #9 with a record 3,779 units, while its own iteration of a city EV, the Roewe Clever EV, jumped to #8, thanks to a record 5,172 units.

(Could this jump in the Clever EV production possibly be related to the Baojun E-series sudden disappearance from the table? Mmmm...)

Another small EV climing to stardom is the new generation Changan Benni EV, that joined the table in #11, with a record 3,240 units, while on the other side of the spectrum, the BMW 530Le had its best result since June, with 2,516 units, allowing it to start the year in #15, being only the second foreign moniker in the table…

Outside the Top 20, a mention to another Chinese startup, with Leap Motor placing its small T03 EV close to the table, with 1,476 units, while Buick had its Velite 6 PHEV station wagon scoring a record 1,632 units, and we celebrate the landing of the Tesla Model Y, with 1,641 units in January.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, things started this year how they ended the previous, with the SGMW joint-venture hovering above anyone else, with an amazing 23% share, followed by a distant BYD, with 12% share, while the 3rd spot is being hardly fought by Tesla and SAIC, both with 9%, with the Californian currently ahead by 600 units.

A couple of steps below, we find the #5 Great Wall, with 6% share, thanks to its cat pack, followed by GAC (4%), that is holding its 6th position from NIO (also 4%), by just 100 units.

Looking at OEM level, SAIC's domination is unquestionable, with the Shanghai maker now having 32% of the market, a truly astounding number in such a fragmented and competitive market.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

China December 2020

9.4% share in (another) Record Month

If the overall Chinese market ended the year on a positive note (+12% YoY), plugins ended with a record month, growing by 50% YoY in in the last month of the year, to a record 224,000 units, and this time it were PHEVs that grew faster (+108%), than BEVs (+42%), but despite this recent uptick from plugin hybrids, BEVs ended owning 80% of the market, which, incidentally, was the same score of 2019, so it seems plugin hybrids have found their corner of the market, especially in higher end models.

Last month, plugin share reached a record 9.4% (7% BEV), pulling the 2020 share to 6.3% (5.1% BEV), almost one percent increase over the 2019 result of 5.5%, and the same result the market had at the time of the last subsidy change, in the summer of 2019, so one can say that the Chinese EV market took 18 months to recover from impact of the subsidy change.

But looking at the bright side, the only way is up, with only minor subsidy changes happening in the foreseeable future, next year we should see the market reach a few months with two digit shares, preparing the disruption to finally set in by 2022...In the largest automotive market in the World.

And once we get to that point, then it's game over for ICE.

Looking at December Best Sellers, we have 3 City EVs, confirming the return of small EVs to the spotlight, with the Wuling EV keeping the Best Seller status.

Here’s December Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

A big name for a small car, the Wuling EV scored 33,489 units last month, its 6th record score in a row, but the difference regarding previous months wasn't significant, so it seems the production ramp up (or is it demand?) has already peaked, but expect the tiny four-seater to continue in the podium positions throughout 2021, as it is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,200!!!), and yet, it’s not that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm / 114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV. At this price level, the Wuling EV is a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers. This EV is becoming a game changer in China, and should do the same elsewhere, if (when?) it manages to expand to overseas markets.

#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 23,804 units last month, which was somewhat less than expected, but then again, the shadow of its younger sibling Model Y, set to land in January, could be the reason for this. Looking at next year sales performance, expect it to remain more or less on the current numbers, because the bulk of growth in 2021 should come from the new MiC Model Y.

#3 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Probably inspired by Deng Xiaoping famous quote: "It doesn't matter wether a cat is black or white, as long as it catched mice", Great Wall decided to create a Cat Pack, transforming its tiny R1 Smart-lookalike into the Black Cat, launching the R2 model (think Scion XB/Toyota Urban Cruiser kind of vehicle) as the White Cat, and to lead the Pack, Great Wall has just successfully launched (2,016 in its landing month) the Good Cat, a chunky (and funky) compact hatchback (VW Golf sized) that kinda looks like a Porsche 356 in the front, a Toyota from the side, and the back...Well, it’s its own thing. But enough of the Good Cat, we will have plenty of time to talk about it in 2021, we are here to talk about the Black Cat, that delivered 10,010 units in December, it's 3nd record score in a row, creating great prospects for the Cat Pack in 2021

#4 – BYD Han EV

BYD's flagship model continues to grow, having registered 9,007 units in December, its 5th record performance in a row, so it looks the production ramp up is still developing. One of the most competitive domestic EVs on the market, the flagship BYD is becoming a regular in this Top 5, thanks to competitive pricing, it's the size of a Model S, and yet it costs only $32,800, less than the cheaper Model 3. But price doesn't tell the whole story, with a cutting edge 77 kWh LFP battery allowing it to reach 605 km (376 miles) NEDC range (think 400 km / 250 miles in real world), the Han EV is a whole package, with good looks, competitive specs and features, with the killer prices being just the icing on the cake. Oh, and if we were to add the 3,082 units of the PHEV version, then the Han would have been 3rd, with 11,483 units, not bad for a flagship model, right?

#5 – SAIC Baojun E-Series

Compared with the bare basics Wuling EV, the Baojun E-Series (E100/200/300) are the SGMW more hip and upmarket city models, with demand hitting record levels, with 8,992 units being delivered in December. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes them appealing for young urban drivers, as well as car-sharing companies and other fleets.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in December, in a record month, several models hit best ever scores, like the Chery eQ, with 7,074 units, or the Li Xiang One, that with 6,126 units, was last month Best Selling PHEV, consolidating its status as the Best Selling SUV and the most successful model coming from a local EV startup.

Speaking of local startups, there were several models on this category shining, besides the aforementioned Li Xiang, Xpeng also had a record month, with its P7 sedan hitting a record 3,691 deliveries, thanks to the continuing production ramp up, while the older G3 crossover had 2,618 units, its best score in 18 months, Leap Motor saw its small T03 reach a record 2,983 units, while the much hyped NIO saw its new baby, the EC6 sports SUV, become the brand best selling model in December, with 2,505 deliveries.

A reference also to the surprise appearance of VW's Tiguan PHEV, in #16, with the compact SUV scoring a record performance of 2,645 units, while the Changan Benni EV profited from the recent restyling to show up in #18, with 2,610 units, the hatchback best score since 2017.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the #21 Geely Emgrand EV, with 2,503 units, the sedan best performance in 18 months, so Geely's bread and butter model might be headed for a (much needed) revival in 2021, while NIO's flagship, the ES8 full size SUV, had its best score in 2 years, by delivering 2,009 units.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Model 3 is the 2020 Best Seller, with a commanding 20,000 units lead over the runner-up, but below it, the #2 Wuling Mini EV is already preparing next year's assault to the Best Selling EV title in China, as the tiny EV won all monthly trophies since September, while in 3rd we have another SGMW model the Baojun E-Series, that surpassed GAC's Aion S in the last stage of the race and secured another medal for the joint-venture.

This highlights the latest trend in China, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the SGMW EVs, but others are also earning the spotlight, like the Great Wall Ora Black Cat, that ended the year in 4th (it had been #11 in the previous year), the #7 Chery eQ, thus making 4 City EVs in the Top 7. Just counting these four models together, we get a quarter million units, or 20% of the total EV market...

But it weren’t only City EVs rising in the table, BYD had two models rising in the table, with the Tang PHEV climbing to #15, while the Han EV jumped 3 spots, to #9, becoming the 2nd BYD on the Top 10.

Speaking of the flagship BYD, i was going to add "Best Selling full size model" to the Li Xiang One number of titles (Best Selling PHEV and Best Selling SUV), but the truth is that if we add both of the BYD Han versions (BEV and PHEV), we get almost 41,000 units for the big sedan, so i believe it's best to split the title between both, as 41,000 units for a full size model model that only started halfway throught the year is truly amazing, especially if we consider that the global category leader was the Audi e-Tron, that ended the year with 47,000 deliveries...

With this in mind, i believe the 2021 Full Size Best Selling EV in the World will probably be the BYD Han.

XPeng also had reasons to celebrate as the much hyped P7 ended the year in #19, being the 4th local startup model on the table, another significant change regarding 2019, because at that time, there was none (and the Tesla Model 3 was only #8, imagine that...).

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the Surprise of the Year was the SGMW joint-venture (15%) breaking a 6 year winning streak of BYD (14%, down 1%), thus becoming the 2020 Best Selling manufacturer, with Tesla (11%, down 1%) securing the last place of the podium.

Interestingly, in 2019 SGMW ended with just 5% share and Tesla with 3%...

Below the podium, SAIC (7%, up 1% share) won the 4th spot with some ease, overcoming the #5 GAC, #6 Volkswagen and #7 Greal Wall, each with 5% share.

As for BAIC, 2020 was a true horror movie, falling from 2nd place and 14% share in 2019, to just 2% share this year!

By Automotive Group, the big winner was Shanghai Auto, or SAIC, that thanks to the SGMW joint-venture, where it has a majority stake (50.1%), and its own sales, it had 22% of the market all to itself, a jump from the 12% of 2019, followed by BYD (15%), Tesla (11%) and the VW Group (6%).

Expect these last two to increase their share in 2021, thanks to the Tesla Model Y and VW ID.4 launch.

So, long story short, in 2020, there were three main stories in the Chinese EV market:

1 - The Tesla Model 3 became the Best Selling EV, the first time a foreigner achieves such a feat;

2 - Local startups, lead by NIO, are growing fast, and are already starting to show up on the radar, so their next step is to gain scale fast in order to get to six digit sales numbers per year and thus securing their survival from the big sharks;

3 - City EVs returned to the spotlight, proving that Chinese OEMs are in a unique position to dominate that vehicle category (and future autonomous pods?), and in that context, SAIC was the biggest gainer of the year, managing even to steal Tesla's thunder towards the end of the year (but don't tell that to Wall Street...).