April 17th update

EV Sales

World Top 20 February 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/04/01/the-top-20-electric-cars-in-the-world-february-2022/

Europe February 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/28/20-of-new-cars-in-europe-have-a-plug/

China February 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/25/20-plugin-vehicle-market-share-in-china-byd-shining/

Germany February 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/19/tesla-model-3-model-y-top-ev-sales-in-germany-in-february/

France February 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/16/plugin-vehicles-20-of-new-car-sales-in-france/

Netherlands February 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/15/lynk-co-28-of-new-cars-sold-in-netherlands-now-plugin-cars/

Autovista 24 articles

Toyota electrification efforts

https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/analysis-toyota-needs-renewed-focus-electrification/

UK EV Deep Dive

https://autovista24.autovistagroup.com/news/uk-car-market-europes-pioneer-for-electric-car-adoption/

March 14th update

 World Top 20 January 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/05/the-worlds-top-selling-electric-vehicles-january-2022/

Europe January 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/02/100-electric-vehicles-10-of-new-car-sales-in-europe-in-january/

China January 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/01/the-rise-rise-of-the-chinese-ev-market-17-market-share-in-january/

Germany January 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/02/22/22-ev-market-share-in-germany-fiat-500e-is-1/

France January 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/02/10/18-of-new-cars-were-plugin-vehicles-in-france-in-january/

Netherlands January 2022 - https://cleantechnica.com/2022/02/09/plugin-vehicles-23-of-new-car-sales-in-netherlands-in-january/

Europe April 2021

1-2 win for Volkswagen

The European passenger plugin market continues on the rise, having registered over 159,000 units in April, and 616,000 units YTD (+136% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 15% share (7.1% BEV), keeping the 2021 PEV share to 15% (6.7% for BEVs alone).

Interestingly, if in April the overall market was up 23% YoY, something that would be expected, after all, 12 months ago markets were all being disrupted by the Covid pandemic, if we compare April '21 with April '19, the overall market was down 25%, which says a lot on the current electrification process.

Growth came from both plugin fields, with BEVs recovering slightly in the plugin share (46% of sales in April, vs 45% YTD), mostly thanks to the BEV push from the Volkswagen Group, allowing the namesake brand to celebrate a 1-2 win in April, a first for the German maker.

Last year winner Renault Zoe was only 5th last month, its lowest standing in over 3 years(!), so after the Nissan Leaf (Best Seller in 2018, 7th in 2020, 16th now) and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (3rd in 2019, 12th in 2020, now below the Top 20), the last bastion of success in the Renault-Nissan Alliance is also suffering, so the warning sirens must be ringing in the Renault & Nissan European HQ's...  

Looking at April Top 5 Models:

#1 Volkswagen ID.4 – Sitting in the vortex of the current hottest trends (Plugins and compact Crossovers/SUVs) much is expected from the new Volkswagen, especially considering that its ID.3 sibling hasn't yet set the market on fire...The ID.4 doesn't have much margin for failure, and so far it hasn't disappointed, after the 5,000 units of March, April saw it reach 7,565 registrations and win its first monthly Best Seller award, but one wonders at which point will it reach the cruise speed, and how high will it be, because the fiercest ID.4 competitor comes from the inside the VW Galaxy and it's not the ID.3...(more on that below), but back at last month performance, the German EV had 3 markets in the four digits, with Norway (1,824 units), Germany (1,446) and Sweden (1,444) all scoring 4-digit performances.

#2 Volkswagen ID.3 – After the end of 2020 registrations rush and subsequent hangover, the German hatchback is slowly returning to form, by having 5,941 deliveries last month, its best score in 2021, allowing it to return to the podium and provide a 1-2 win for Volkswagen. Regarding April, the ID.3 performance was heavily based in its home market, with Germany taking almost 40% (2,264 units) of registratrions, being followed from a far by the United Kingdom (815 units) and Sweden (469).

#3 Ford Kuga PHEV – After a few battery issues last year, the Ford compact crossover, known as Escape in the USA, is back in top form, having been last month best selling plugin hybrid, with 4,300 units, thus ending a 3 month winning streak from the Volvo XC40 PHEV. With Ford now launching the much antecipated Mustang Mach E in Europe, one wonders if the Kuga PHEV will suffer from internal competition in the coming months. In April, Germany was by far the best market for the Ford nameplate, with 1,196 deliveries, followed by the United Kingdom (612 units) and Denmark (630), with the popularity of the Kuga PHEV in the Nordic country being a true case study, as the crossover was already the Best Seller in the overall Danish market in more than one occasion. 

#4 Volvo XC40 PHEV - The smallest of Volvo's PHEV lineup continues its road to success, together with the popularity of the XC40 in the overall European market (compact SUVs/crossovers are all the rage now), with the Swedish carmaker selling their plugin hybrid versions as just another trimline in Europe, the XC40 PHEV has become a hot seller across Europe, and that is visible in the sales distribution, in April, the Belgian-built Volvo scored 4,118 registrations, with several markets scoring similar results, like in Germany (540 units), the United Kingdom (562), Italy (532), France (487) and Belgium (474). Without production constraints and experiencing strong demand, the compact Volvo remains the strongest candidate for the 2021 PHEV Best Seller title. 

#5 Renault Zoe – The 4,083 deliveries show that the French hatchback is yet to recover from the last year end peak effort, and one now wonders if demand will ever recover, and this is especially more worrying when we consider the context of doubling sales in the European BEV market. In any case, the main markets in April were the usual, with Germany (1,268 units) leading, followed by France (1,265), while Italy (721), was a distant 3rd. 

Looking at the remaining April table, one should highlight the Peugeot 208 EV ending less than 500 units behind its arch rival Renault Zoe, so the Pug could very well win soon the monthly sub-compact/B-segment Best Seller trophy, a first for the small Peugeot and also a mark in the rise of Stellantis as a major force in the market.

Still on the subject of Stellantis, the #6 Peugeot 3008 PHEV and the #10 Fiat 500e had their highest table standings this year last month, thus making 3 Stellantis models in the Top 10, a new record for the Conglomerate.

But looking at the Top 20, the OEM with the most number of models was the VW Group, with 5 models, all BEV, besides the aforementioned ID.3 & 4, the Audi e-Tron was 12th, the VW e-Up was 15th, and in #19 we have the Skoda Enyaq, that joined the table right in its first full sales month, and do not be surprised if the Czech-station-wagon-that-thinks-it's-an-SUV reached the Top 10 in May, as the Skoda EV is currently the most competitive MEB-based model one of the best EVs around, maybe even the best reasonably priced family EV in the market, with competitive pricing, space and practicality, without losing much in premium-ness to its VW counterparts...Actually, i believe the only thing stopping it from having even greater success is the badge itself, had it a more popular/"aspirational" badge and it could become the Best Selling EV in Europe.

Another OEM with a good month was Daimler, with 2 Mercedes and 1 Smart models in the table, with the popular GLC PHEV returning to a Top 10 position, while the Smart Fortwo EV continues to post solid results, despite its underwhelming specs.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to 4 BEVs in the vicinity of a Top 20 position, 2 from Stellantis, the Opel Corsa EV (2,272 units) and the crossover Peugeot 2008 EV (2,122), while the other 2 are from the BMW Group, with the Mini Cooper EV (2,283 units) ahead of the veteran BMW i3 (2,043).

Expect the Opel and Peugeot to reach Top 20 positions during the current months, something that the Mini should also achieve, as for the German EV...Come on, BMW put on a 55 kWh battery in it, the i3 deserves to end its career with a bang, and a new, bigger battery, would the the perfect excuse to do so, after all, its design continues fresh and it is still the best premium small EV around...And a future classic.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the main news belonged to the ID family, with the Volkswagen ID.3 jumping two spots to the runner-up spot, while the ID.4 joined the table in #8, no doubt a temporary position, as VW's crossover should join the Top 5 in May, and from then on, a podium position shouldn't be that far away.

Now...will it be enough to displace the Model 3 from the leadership? I doubt it, with the Model Y production delayed, demand should remain strong throughout the next two quarters, and with 15,000 units separating it from the #2 ID.3, i just do not see how can either of the ID models reach within shooting range of the Tesla sports sedan. 

A different question is looking at sales by brand or OEM, as currently Tesla in Europe is a one trick pony fighting against brands/OEMs with increasingly longer lineups. But more on that later...

Elsewhere, the Climber of the Month was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that jumped 3 spots, to #9, with the Spanish-made crossover now ambitioning a Top 5 seat.

The Mercedes GLC300e/de also had a good month, climbing to 12th, surpassing the Volvo XC60 PHEV and becoming the new midsize SUV Best Seller.  

Still on the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron climbed one position, to #18, but the big Audi is below last year performance levels, when it ended in 5th.

Just below the Top 20, we have the #21 Smart Fortwo EV, with 9,846 registrations, so we have three models (#14 VW e-Up; #20 Fiat 500e; #21 Smart Fortwo EV) separated by less than 2,000 units, somthing that should make the city car one of the most exciting races of the year.

Unlike the models ranking, where we already have a clear favorite, in the makers ranking, balance is the word, but Volkswagen (11%, up 1%), managed to earn an important edge over Mercedes and BMW, both with 10% share, with April possibly signaling the departure of the Wolsburg brand for a win in the manufacturer race.

Below these three we have the #4 Volvo, with 8%, while in 5th we have Peugeot (6%), now with a 1,000 units advantage over the #6 Renault (also 6% share), so it looks that in the race between the two French brands, the Lion is gaining momentum at the expense of its rival. 

Looking by Automotive Groups, the Volkswagen Group is far and wide ahead, with 23% share, ahead of Stellantis (14%), Daimler and BMW, both with 12% share.

Do not expect the VW Group to lose their commanding position in Europe anytime soon, as neither Stellantis (not enough firepower in the higher end of the market), nor Daimler or BMW (not enough firepower in the lower end of the market) are in position to challenge the VW galaxy.

As for Tesla, even if the Model Y becomes a resounding hit next year, and the refreshed Model S/X are also met with success, i do not see them go higher than 14%-15% share by 2022, which is significantly more than the current 5%, but even in this optimistic scenario, the VW Group would still have some 18% by the end of next year.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan lives in another galaxy, having won a sizeable distance over the competition, highlighting the fact that it won't have significant competition in the next few months, as the Tesla Model Y is delayed and the just arrived Ford Mustang Mach E (123 units in April, no doubt demonstration units) and upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 have the small demand -limiting issue that both come from mainstream brands and in Europe, midsize models from mainstream makers simply do not sell as much as premium brands (In the overall Top 10 midsize Best Sellers table, only two models, VW Passat and Skoda Superb, do not come from premium brands).

So yes, they might beat the current #2 Mercedes EQC, but that won't be enough to even get close to Tesla's sports sedan. Then again, in the unlikely event that demand would be over the roof for those two models, both Ford and Hyundai wouldn't have enough production to meet such demand, so...

Speaking of the Mercedes EQC, the electric SUV (1,764 units last month) benefited from Tesla's usual off month (just 1,244 units) to win April's trophy, ending some 300 units ahead of the #2 Polestar 2.

Outside the podium, the expensive Jaguar i-Pace (617 units in April), continues to outsell the BMW iX3 (565 units) that seems stuck at 500-something performances (no wonder BMW is already refreshing it...).

BEV E/F-Segment / Full Size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and the Audi SUV seems destined to win another category title this year, with Tesla basically giving up on the Model S & X for this year, what they will recover towards the end of the year shouldn't be enough to compensate for the current drought, while the #2 model, the Porsche Taycan (1,429 units last month) is too niche to go head to head with the e-Tron in the sales charts.

Regarding the remaining competition, the Audi e-Tron GT (303 units in April) has finally surpassed the Mercedes EQV Luxury Van, thus making a 1-2-3 lead for the VW Group.

But expect Mercedes to rebound in the second half of the year, with the new EQS, and especially in 2022, with the EQE, a model in which Mercedes has high expectations, namely by winning the category title, thus finishing the current Audi e-Tron domination.

Europe March 2021

 

Tesla Model 3 new #1 in hot market (16% share!)

The European passenger plugin market continues on the rise, having registered over 227,000 units in March (+169% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 16% share (7.6% BEV), pulling the 2021 PEV share to 15% (6.6% for BEVs alone).

This time growth came from both fields, with BEVs doubling their sales year-on-year, but PHEVs continue surging at a faster pace, having seen their sales jump by 264% YoY last month, confirming plugin hybrids as the major growth source for plugins in the first months of 2021.

With a higher than expected end-of-quarter peak, the Model 3 won its second Best Seller title in a row, confirming its good form this year.

The same can't be said about the remaining 2020 podium bearers, as that year winner Renault Zoe was only 4th in March, while the VW ID.3, Bronze medalist last year, continues to underperform, reaching a low 6th place last month...With VW's hatchback faltering, all eyes are now on the new ID.4 crossover, that had its first real deliveries month in March, ending the stage in #5, already above its slightly older (and shorter) sibling. A sign of things to come? 

Looking at March Top 5 Models:

#1 Tesla Model 3 – The sports sedan returned to form, by delivering 24,184 deliveries last month, a larger than expected high tide, allowing it to register 4 times more units than the runner-up Hyundai Kona EV. Regarding March, the Model 3 hade several 4-digit scores, namely in the United Kingdom (6,500 units), France (4,524), Germany (3,699), Norway (2,169), Italy (1,363) and Sweden and Austria, both with 1,192 units each.

#2 Hyundai Kona EV – The Korean crossover is already recovering from the pull forward stunt of the last months of 2020, something that others can't say the same, with the Hyundai EV reaching the runner-up place in February, no doubt thanks to its competitive range vs price ratio, with the distinctive crossover scoring 5,643 deliveries last month. In March, Germany was by far the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with 3,237 deliveries, followed by the United Kingdom (800 units), France (409) and Norway (349). 

#3 Volvo XC40 PHEV - The smallest of Volvo's PHEV lineup is now the the continent's favorite PHEV, as the Swedish carmaker sees their plugin hybrid versions as just another trimline in Europe, facilitating sales, especially of the XC40, that sits at the heart of the hot compact SUV category. In March, the Belgian-built Volvo scored 5,567 registrations, earning its 3rd Best Selling PHEV title in a row. The markets where the Volvo plugin was in high rotation were Sweden (1,192 units), the United Kingdom (900) and Germany (624 units). Without production constraints and currently experiencing strong demand, the compact Volvo is a strong candidate for the 2021 PHEV Best Seller title. 

#4 Renault Zoe – The 5,482 deliveries number show that the French hatchback is yet to recover from the last year end peak effort, having seen its registrations drop by in two digits last month, an even more worrying event, when we consider the context of doubling sales in the European BEV market. In any case, the main markets in March were the usual, with Germany (1,692 units) leading, followed by France (1,519), while Italy (721), was a distant 3rd. 

#5 Volkswagen ID.4 – Sitting in the vortex of the current hottest trends (Plugins and compact Crossovers/SUVs) much is expected from the new Volkswagen, especially considering that its ID.3 sibling hasn't really set the market on fire...The ID.4 doesn't have much margin for failure, so it was good to see it start its first real deliveries month in 5th, just 500 units behind the runner-up Hyundai Kona EV. With the ID.3 failing to run at the same pace of the Tesla Model 3, now its up for the ID.4 to save VW's honor in Europe. But back at last month performance, the German EV registered 5,104 units, with the biggest market being its homeland Germany, with 872 registrations, followed by Norway, with 856 units, and the United Kingdom (500).

Looking at the remaining March table, besides the disappointing performance of the VW ID.3, the highlights regard several record performances on the table, like the #7 BMW 3-Series PHEV scoring a record 4,957 units, the #10 Peugeot 3008 PHEV hitting a record 4,243 registrations, while the veteran VW e-Up hit a record 4,206 units, an amazing performance for the small EV, that can only be explained by the lower than expected sales of the ID.3, that is forcing the German maker to increase production of the cheaper (and less profitable) e-Up.

Still on the subject of record performances, and highlighting the great moment of Volvo, the XC60 PHEV scored another record score, with 4,189 units, slightly ahead of another record performer, the Peugeot 208 EV (4,098) and the #19 BMW X1 (3,876).

A mention also to the Nissan Leaf, that thanks to heavy discounts of its 62 kWh version, has jumped to 8th last month, with 4,708 units.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the Toyota RAV4 PHEV, with the Japanese maker continuing to ramp up the deliveries of its RAV4 PHEV model, reaching 2,575 units last month, a new record for the Japanese SUV and the same number of units registered as the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French crossover apparently still in (slow) production ramp up. The Mini Cooper EV scored a record 3,324 units performance.

Finally, an interesting fact, if we sum all VW Golf cousins PHEV sales together (Seat/Cupra Leon + Skoda Octavia + Audi A3), we get almost 10,000 units, which added to the VW Golf PHEV registrations, we would reach some 14,000 PHEVs on these compact cars alone. 

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the main news was the Tesla Model 3 shooting for Number One, with the sports sedan having almost a 20,000 units lead over the #2 Volvo XC40 PHEV.

And with the remaining last year Best Seller competitors underperforming, the Renault Zoe is down 39% YoY, while the all-new VW ID.3 is just 12% above what the then veteran e-Golf had 12 months ago, one can already say that this Second Quarter will be a stroll around the park for the sports sedan, possibly securing enough advantage over the competition to allow it to manage a demand defection to the Tesla Model Y or volume surges in the competition tallies, now being the main favorite to win the 2021 Best Seller title in Europe.

But the Climber of the Month was the Hyundai Kona EV, that jumped 5 spots, to #5, with the Korean crossover now ambitionin a podium seat.

The BMW 330e also had a good month, climbing to 6th, but year-to-date, the BMW midsizer has about a third of the Tesla Model 3 sales, which says a lot about the impossible uphill battle that the future BMW i4 will have to face...  

On the second half of the table, the small VW e-Up continues to climb in the ranking, it's now in #13, just one position below another rising model, as the Ford Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape) jumped from #16 to #12 in March.

We had three models returning the table in March, with the most surprising being the Nissan Leaf, up to #16, while the VW Golf PHEV was up to #17 and the Mercedes A250e, last year Best Selling PHEV, jumped to #19.

Unlike the models ranking, where we already have a clear favorite, in the makers ranking, balance is the word, with the 3 top brands separated by just 700 units, as Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW all have 10% share, with the Wolsburg brand currently on top, but the differences are so small that anything can happen.

Below these three we have the #4 Volvo, with 8%, followed by Tesla (7%), while in tied in 6th, we have Peugeot and Renault, both with 6% share, with the first currently having a 34 units advantaged over its arch-rival. 

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan lives in another galaxy, having won a sizeable distance over the competition, and has seen its sales increase 47% over the first quarter of 2020, highlighting the fact that it won't have significant competition in the next few months, as the Tesla Model Y will only land in the second half of the year.

The Mercedes EQC (2,131 units last month) recovered the second spot, having surpassed the Polestar 2 in March, with the Sino-Swede now being some 400 units behind the Mercedes SUV (4,194 vs 3,792).

So far, the only other significant midsize BEV was the Jaguar i-Pace (792 units in March), but the BMW iX3 has finally started to be delivered in volume, with the midsize BMW delivering 566 units last month.

Will we see it surpass the Jaguar in the next couple of months?

BEV E/F-Segment / Full Size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable but its seemingly never ending growth seems to have finally stopped, with the Big Audi current 7,642 units representing an 8% sales drop YoY, but despite this, the Audi SUV seems destined to win another category title this year, with Tesla basically giving up on the Model S & X for the first half of the year, what they will recover in the second half of the year, shouldn't be enough to compensate for the drought in the first half, while the #2 model, the Porsche Taycan (1,778 units last month) is too niche to go head to head with the e-Tron in the sales charts.

Regarding the remaining competition, the Mercedes EQV Luxury Van is still in 3rd place, with 431 units, 41 more than the Audi e-Tron GT, but shouldn't be here for long, as the Audi e-Tron GT production ram-up should allow it to reach the podium soon, thus making a 1-2-3 lead for the VW Group.

Europe February 2021

Tesla Model 3 wins in February

Despite a depressing overall market (-20% YoY in February), the European passenger plugin market continues on the rise, having registered over 115,000 units in February (+66% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 14% share (5.9% BEV), keeping the 2021 PEV share at 14% (5.7% for BEVs alone).

This solid sales growth was mostly due to PHEVs, that have seen their sales jump by 117% YoY, to 65,581 units, while BEVs (50,246 units) have grown a more moderate 27% last month, confirming plugin hybrids as the major growth source for plugins in these first stages of 2021.

With the first 2021 fresh units coming from Fremont (and Shanghai), the Model 3 won last month Best Seller title, its first since last September, with Tesla's expected high tide in March, and the competition still recovering from the December peak, the sports sedan should win another trophy next month.

Last month we had the Peugeot 208 EV joining the Best Sellers list, being one of the most interesting small BEVs around, the French hatchback crossed 2020 living in the shadow of its arch rival Renault Zoe success, but this year, both models are closer, so 2021 could be the little Pug breakout year. 

Looking at February Top 5 Models:

#1 Tesla Model 3 – The sports sedan returned to form, by having 5,506 deliveries last month, allowing it to have its first monthly win since last September, which is a promising sign for the upcoming March high tide, where over 15,000 deliveries seem like a realistic target. Regarding February, the Model 3 main markets were Germany (1,910 units) and France (1,166), with Austria (369) and Norway (334) folowing at some distance.

#2 Volkswagen ID.3 – The pull forward stunt of last December had its downside in January, when the German hatchback was just 5th, but fast forward to February and recovery is now on its way, with the VW model scoring 3,808 deliveries. We believe that by March we should finally start to see the real demand level of the electric hatchback. Back to February, Germany was by far the best market for the Volkswagen nameplate, with 1,892 deliveries, followed by France (361 units) and Austria (260). 

#3 Renault Zoe – The low 3,620 deliveries number show that the French hatchback is yet to recover from the last year end peak effort, but we should wait for March final results before jumping into conclusions, as Renault is known for unexpected end-of-quarter peaks. Last month, the main markets were the usual, with Germany (1,424 units) leading, followed by France (1,074), while Italy (285), was a distant 3rd. 

#4 Volvo XC40 PHEV - The smallest of Volvo's PHEV lineup is now the PHEV du jour in Europe, as the carmaker sees their plugin hybrid versions as just another trimline in Europe, facilitating sales across its lineup, especially of the XC40, that sits at the heart of the hot compact SUV category. In February the Belgian-built Volvo scored 3,602 registrations, earning its 2nd Best Selling PHEV title in a row. The markets where the Volvo plugin was in high rotation were Germany (529 units), Italy (518), Sweden (447) and France (371). Without production constraints and currently experiencing strong demand, the compact Volvo is a strong candidate for the 2021 PHEV Best Seller title. 

#5 Peugeot 208 EV – Thanks to a competitive package (50 kWh battery, 100 kW charging rate) and distinctive design, much was expected from the small Peugeot last year, but ending 2020 in a low 8th spot, with a third of its arch rival Renault Zoe registrations, one couldn't say that the Peugeot model had set the market on fire...Several reasons might explain this, but the truth is that this year things should be looking better, with February signaling the 208 EV first Top 5 presence in 12 months. Last month, the French EV registered 3,062 units, with the biggest market being its homeland France, with 1,484 registrations, followed by Germany, with 596 units, and Italy (184 units).

Looking at the remaining February table, the highlights show up on the lower half, with the VW Golf PHEV showing in in #15, immediately followed by the #16 Fiat 500e, with the Italian EV now aiming to displace the VW e-Up from the City car leadership, although the Smart Fortwo EV, 18th last month, might still have a word to say in this race, set to be one of the most thrilling categories of the year.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the Toyota RAV4 PHEV, as the Japanese maker continues to (slowly) ramp up the deliveries of its RAV4 PHEV model, reaching 1,444 units last month, a new record for the Japanese SUV. Will we see it on the table soon?

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the main news was the Tesla Model 3 shooting to #3, with the sports sedan on its way to the leadership in March, while the VW ID.3 also improved its standing, climbing one position, to 4th.

Same thing for the Peugeot 208 EV, that was up one spot, from #6 to #5, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV jumped 4 positions, joining the Top 10, in 9th, highlighting Volvo's good moment. 

On the second half of the table, the small VW e-Up joined the table in #15, stealing the City car Best Seller status from the #18 Smart Fortwo EV, while the new Fiat 500e joined the table for the first time, in #20, with the category title promising to be hardly fought between these 3 models (Last year's title went for the VW e-Up, beating the Smart Fortwo EV by 2,000 units - 22k vs 20k).

Outside the Top 20, there are two PHEVs set to join the table soon, with the #21 VW Golf PHEV only 97 units below the #20 Fiat 500e, while the #22 BMW X5 PHEV is only 172 units behind. 

In the brands ranking, balance is the word, with 6 brands separated by just 3%, in the lead we have BMW (10%), immediately followed by Volkswagen and Mercedes, both with 9% share, then we have the #4 Volvo, with 8% (up 2%), while in tied in 5th, we have Peugeot and Renault, both with 7% share. 

Oh, and don't forget that Tesla (3%) should join the pack in March...Now this is what i call an entertaining race!

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan is now firm in the leadership, having won a sizeable distance to the competition in February, with over 4,500 units now separating it from the runner-up spot, and has seen its sales increase 54% YoY last month, highlighting the fact that it won't have significant competition in the next few months, as the Tesla Model Y will only land in the second half of the year.

The Polestar 2 (1,171 units last month) is the new 2nd placed, having surpassed the Mercedes EQC in February, with the Sino-Swede now having a 393 units advantage over the Mercedes SUV, that has delivered 698 units last month, a mere 3% increase YoY, so it seems that the German EV has already found its (low) cruise speed.

With the only other significant midsize BEV, the Jaguar i-Pace, selling at a slower pace than these two (393 units last month), the Polestar model can only fear the Ford Mustang Mach-E in the race for the Best Selling Non-Tesla title, as the existing competition doesn't seem to pose a threat to it and the upcoming BMW i4 will be delivered too late in the year to make up for the lost time.

BEV E/F-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable but its seemingly never ending growth seems to have finally stopped, with the Big Audi scoring 2,351 units last month, representing a 6% sales drop YoY, but despite this, the Audi SUV seems destined to win another category title this year, with Tesla basically giving up on the Model S & X for the first half of the year, what they will recover in the second half of the year, shouldn't be enough to compensate for the drought in the first half, while the #2 model, the Porsche Taycan (724 units last month) is too niche to go head to head with the e-Tron in the sales charts.

Regarding the remaining competition, the Mercedes EQV Luxury Van is still in 3rd place, with 308 units, but shouldn't be here for long, as the Audi e-Tron GT just landed in February, with its first registrations (212 of them) in Germany, no doubt demonstration units, so expect the Taycan sibling to jump into the Bronze medal spot soon, thus making a 1-2-3 lead for the VW Group.

Finally, a note regarding the upcoming Mercedes EQS, while its design looks promising, i think Mercedes is making a mistake by marketing it as a don't call it a hatchback fastback sedan. Considering the general proportions of the car, i think the right way to market it would be as a Sports Wagon. A bit like Porsche does with the Panamera Sport Turismo (and upcoming Taycan Sport/Cross Turismo), the EQS reminds more of a sports wagon than a big fastback a la Tesla Model S (or Porsche Panamera, if you prefer). Anyway, the EQS should remain a niche model, the real test for Mercedes will be the 2022 EQE, that model will have to fill some really big shoes, as the regular Mercedes E-Series has been the category Best Selling model for decades...So anything less than the Number One position for the EQE will be seen as failure by Mercedes management. No pressure, EQE, no pressure...

Europe January 2021

PHEVs shine in disrupted market

The European passenger plug-in market registered 112,000 registrations in January (+50% YoY), with PHEVs (+85%) growing faster than BEVs (+18%), with PHEVs starting the year ahead of BEVs  (42% BEVs / 58% PHEVs). 

Last month positive result, added to a crashing overall market (-26% YoY), allowed the 2021 plugin share to start at 14% (5.6% for BEVs alone), already above the final 2020 PEV (11%) and doubling the result of January 2020 (6.6%).

With the plugin share already starting firmly above 10%, disruption is here to stay and the 20% mark for 2021, that i expected a month ago, now not only looks reasonable, but one can even imagine it ending above that score!. 

In January, PHEVs were the stars of the show, not only winning the Best Seller trophy for the first time in years, thanks to the surprising Volvo XC40 PHEV, but also by placing 2 models in the Top 5, for the first time since last August, as the BMW 330e(!) reached the 4th place last month.

And the surprises do not ended there, as the Kia Niro EV won the last place of the podium, although the 3,123 units weren't enough to beat the #2 Renault Zoe, that lost the leadership race by a mere 23 units, while the VW ID.3, said to be the favorite candidate to win the 2021 title, was only 5th.    

In a month where the overall market saw the perennial leader VW Golf drop to 4th(!), behind the #1 Toyota Yaris(!!), #2 Peugeot 208 (!) and #3 Dacia Sandero (!!!), and the usual runner-up Renault Clio starting only in #7, added to the fact that plugins are becoming increasingly mainstream, the European automotive market is definetely into little known waters, although for now we shouldn't read too much into these early results, but i believe by March we should have a clearer view of what's going on, and the if disruption is indeed hurting the previous status quo.   

Also important to know, will be if the possible weakness of the VW Golf and Renault Clio is due to buyers directly flocking to their EV counterparts (ID.3 and Zoe), or are they moving into other options on the market.

Bring on the popcorn, because the next few months will surely be fun to watch!

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Volvo XC40 PHEV – With electrification high on Volvo's priorities list, the Swedish brand is, along with Porsche, the two most electrified legacy makers in Europe, the PHEV version of the compact SUV hit 3,543 units last month, winning for Volvo its first monthly trophy, highlighting the good growth prospects in 2021 for the brand, especially considering that its BEV sibling (1,027 units last month) is only just starting, with a number of markets still without units delivered. While the XC40 PHEV major market was Germany (573 units), there were several others also helping in significant volumes, like the Netherlands (367), France (357), the UK (350), Belgium (434) and Italy (399).

#2 Renault Zoe– The 3,520 deliveries of January haven't allowed it to start in the lead, but with only 23 units separating if from the leadership, it really doesn't mean anything for future prospects. Back to January, Germany (1,166 units) and France (1,013) pulled the usual heavy lifting, with Italy a distant 3rd, with only 255 registrations.

#3 Kia Niro EV – The Korean crossover scored 3,123 units last month, a 137% surge regarding the same month last year, although this might not mean that the Niro EV will have an outstanding 2021, as it might be just the result of Kia's allocation policy. To be continued... Looking back at January results, the two main markets were the UK (950 units), followed by France (748 units, a new record), with Germany being a distant third (350 registrations).

  

#4 BMW 330e– Now this was a surprise. The German midsizer joined the Top 5 and became the leader in its category, with 3,058 units. With BMW's plugin hybrid profiting from a fortuity of circumstances, like the fact that the Tesla Model 3 was in an off month, and the Mercedes C-Class arch-rival being close to a generational change (the new PHEV version has 100 kms (62 mi) electric range! and CCS!), the BMW plugin hybrid managed to pull off this good result, although one wonders for how long with BMW's model manage to keep this status. Looking at individual countries, the UK (1,100 units) and Germany (763), were its largest markets, with the following being Belgium (263) and Sweden (244).

#5 Volkswagen ID.3– The German model hit a meh 2,978 units last month, which is somewhat disappointing, but with production still ramping up, we should see a very strong March, with the following months being the real test to the VW EV demand and/or production priorities, as the German maker might prioritize the more profitable ID.4 over the ID.3... Regarding January performances, the Volkswagen hatchback registrations were heavily concentrated in Germany (1,799), being followed from a far by Austria (199), and France (142). Interesting that they focussed January deliveries in markets close to the factory, isn't it?

Peugeot 508 PHEV

Looking at the remaining ranking, BMW and Peugeot impressed, with the German maker placing 4 models in the Top 20, while Peugeot had 3, with one of them, the 3008 PHEV, even scoring a record result (2,680 units), and while BMW Top 20 line-up was all PHEV and SUV-heavy (3 SUVs), Peugeot had had two BEVs, while looking at the broader Stellantis line up, the new conglomerate also placed 4 models to the table, because on top of the 3 Peugeot's, the Opel Corsa EV also managed to find a spot in the table, in #20.

Regarding fresh faces, a mention to the 12th spot of the Mercedes GLE350e/de barge SUV, after a looong production ramp up, it seems to be a tradition now in Mercedes, the long range SUV is finally living up to its specs (31 kWh battery and CCS charging) and being delivered in large numbers. Coincidentally, its BMW arch rival, the X5 PHEV, is also back at the Top 20, which underlines a recent trend, big SUVs are being electrified faster than the rest of the market. 

Outside the Top 20, two recent models deserve a mention, the Toyota RAV4 PHEV continues its deliveries ramp up, clocking an already relevant 1,253 units last month, while the Citroen C4 EV is also ramping up, having registered 536 units in January.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW profited from strong results from its (long) lineup and started the year in the lead, with 10% share, followed by a pack of competitors, leaded by Volkswagen, Peugeot and Mercedes, all with 7% share each, with Renault and Volvo following immediately, both with 6%.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales started in the low end, with 1,499 deliveries, only 11 less than a year ago, but expect the sports sedan deliveries to jump significantly in March, thus distancing itself from the #2 Mercedes EQC (1,354 units) and Polestar 2 (1,297).

Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the Polestar 2 is still too expensive to reach higher volumes and the EQC...Well, that one is just happy to keep Silver while it can.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it comes close to the the Mercedes EQC...

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 2,621 units last month, with its sales growing 16% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will the growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...Maybe when the Q4 e-Tron is presented?

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (1,094 units last month) accelerating its sales, the main interest is now the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (168 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas.

2021 will se a lot of action in this category, not only with several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), but with also the flagship Teslas redesign and the Porsche Taycan lineup expansion (RWD, Cross Turismo...), the Audi e-Tron will have a harder time keeping the full size crown.